Innovation cycle change, smart phones, tablet industry growth into the second half . With the innovation cycle switching to smart phones, tablet PCs toward the core of the innovation cycle The second half , the overall industry growth rate is declining. But whatever the future of Apple , Samsung, Google or the Amazon, Microsoft to become the industry leader, and will not affect the trend of China's rising industrial chain . Wearable devices to the core of the next wave may become an important driving force in the next five years the growth of the electronics industry to digital existence and intelligent decision-making as the core features to further liberate the human bondage , making the life , work and entertainment more convenient , healthy , fun and fashionable .
Capacity migration continues to deepen, the rise of mainland enterprises trend remains unchanged . For long-term growth of local electronics companies capabilities, we have no doubt . Taiwan is currently the face of China 's industrial chain offensive retreat, industry continues to migrate conducted among Chinese industry from low-end to high-end, from the scattered remains strong trend towards the integration , by customer, product , supply chain breakthrough and integration, the growth of local electronics companies still can be expected. Taiwan dominate the global supply chain, manufacturing 90% NB brilliant long-term goal of China's electronics supply chain.

Still short-term pressure on the layout in 2014 pending the release of three quarterly risk . Now, the electronics industry is still facing some pressure in the short term , three quarters of the apple industry chain due to the iPhone 5S iPhone5C capacity bottlenecks and poor demand led to lower than expected shipments , while the low end of the industry chain Lenovo, Huawei , ZTE shipments receive Samsung, Apple, Sony released new impact than expected, resulting in the overall performance of the electronics industry pressure . We believe that in October of three quarterly release of the electronics industry will be pressure stage, with the advantage of this opportunity during the year , the share price will go into the bottom of the electronics industry in the November-December session , the window layout in 2014 to become the best electronic investment.

Electronic investment enthusiasm is still 2014 ushered in more significant differentiation . Feedback from the current market , investors still have a larger electronic investment enthusiasm in 2014 due to the slowdown in the global level of the industry , the company's ability to grow more highlights individuals , companies with good growth prospects will continue have a higher valuation levels relative valuation premium growth will slow further amplified .

A : wearable devices fast

In the first half of 2013 GoogleGlass pull , wearable device has been widespread concern in the market , Samsung launched the second half of the first smart watch GalaxyGear further enhance the industry's level of concern .

Wearable devices will become an important direction for future industry a few years of growth, although the performance of existing products , business models , and many other issues , not really divide across the market . But its future development trend is a clear , once the breakthrough will enter a period of rapid growth of the market turmoil .

Google Glass set off a boom after 2013 , because the product has not been officially released soon commercial products , market attention has declined, according to our understanding of the supply chain , we predict the mid- three -quarter 2014 , Google officially released the first possible Google Glass products for commercial and wearable devices pull attention once again , if properly on business model innovation , 2014 could be the first year of wearable devices and new business models .

II: Mobile Electronics metalization

In pursuit of intelligent machines thin, cool today, good heat resistance, pressure resistance and non- metallic metal chassis generally makes it the best choice for smart machine chassis.

Thin is the mainstream trend of smart phones , the traditional plastic or glass enclosure thickness has reached the limit, thinning will not be able to continue to meet the requirements of the phone chassis stiffness and strength , while the metal chassis can meet the demands of strength and hardness case , the traditional enclosure is reduced by the thickness of 1.1mm to 0.6mm, thinning of approximately 0.5mm.

Ease of processing metal chassis , stylish , delicate touch, and won the recognition of consumers like in appearance . And metal thermal conductivity, and with the rapid increase of smart phone configuration and performance, increase heat production internal components , superior thermal conductivity metal chassis will better meet the needs of the development of smart phones .

As the handsets become more homogeneous, then the big breakthrough performance takes time . Therefore, the major brands back into the plant to focus on the phone 's appearance. As the metal material on intelligent machines not only in terms of the heat , and drop outstanding performance and durability , the texture and feel more has unparalleled experience , where the metal has become a trend .

2013 Apple introduced the plastic shell iPhone 5C indeed possible to obtain a good market feedback, plastic chassis has not proved attractive to consumers , only the metal casing material in mainstream high-end market .

Non -Apple mobile phone manufacturers in order to enhance the aesthetics , durability , and low-cost version of Apple may confront the challenges posed by mobile phones , have launched a metal chassis flagship model from Nokia, Lenovo, Huawei and Samsung in particular, action to look, metal chassis ( especially high-end mobile phone ) has become a trend .

It is said that long stick plastic casing Samsung will also use the new Galaxy5 metal casing , the plastic Corps announced last piece positions fall , high-end phones will likely use a large area metal housing . 2014 , we suspect that in the future with lower technology matures, costs, metal chassis will gradually expand the application to the end .

Three : LED home lighting market launch , China will be the world's manufacturing base

According to 2012 statistics GLII , LED output value of 205.9 billion yuan the whole industry , an increase of 34% , higher than the 2011 growth rate of 22%. And in the middle and lower reaches of the LED industry chain , the application is faster than the package , the package and fast on -chip .

Epitaxial chips , according to GLII statistics, in 2012 the output value of 7.2 billion yuan , an increase of 20 %. This growth is largely digested the basis of the price reduction on the implementation. The background is that the domestic chip manufacturers to improve the technical level, widely accepted by users in lighting applications .

Packaging field , according to GLII statistics, in 2012 the output value of 39.7 billion yuan , an increase of 24%. Sales growth in the size of the package has remained relatively stable , but in the capacity put on the direction of the newly added areas of mainly white packaging related lighting and backlighting .

Applications, according to GLII statistics, in 2012 the output value of 159 billion yuan , an increase of 37%. Downstream applications fastest growing mainly because China is a major global production base for LED applications, including such as displays, lighting and backlighting are so, in addition , the price reductions downstream applications is relatively smaller in the industry , so the scale growth into sales growth.

LED lighting applications beneficial for traditional companies , pure LED 's first mover advantage weakened. As the cost structure has shifted the focus of the non- LED lighting source , so for LED lighting company's competitiveness evaluation, should turn integrated manufacturing capabilities, when 2014 came, more sensitive for low-cost home lighting market may be more in line with the ability of low-cost companies . We believe that the traditional class company with a better foundation in this regard , such as sun lighting, Foshan lighting, low-cost manufacturing of some good companies involved in this area , it is worth attention, is typical Siu Chi shares .

2014 should be the biggest highlight will start home lighting , LED lighting channels are worthy of further research directions. Mainly in the high-growth LED lighting, commercial lighting , automotive lighting growth potential has been recognized market the last two years , home lighting is the highlight of 2014 . While many companies in the retail channel LED made ​​many attempts , but few results, the face of the wave of electricity providers , channel pattern of change must be aware of . For this problem, we need to do ongoing research , attention has explicitly suggested as a major electricity supplier development channels Chau Ming Technology .

Packaging field mainly because of backlighting business differentiation , can expect high growth in the second half is Jufei and Siu Chi shares . In the first half of 2013 , the fastest growing Ruifeng power and Jufei because the causes of the rapid growth of the backlight . Despite the large-size backlight from a global perspective is a mature market, the domestic packaging companies continue to get market share in Taiwan and South Korea manufacturers . The second half of 2013 Jufei field will bang in large-size backlight , and Siu Chi shares rely on its integrated resource advantages , will also grow rapidly. Lighting package is generally fast-growing business , which Ruifeng power is growing rapidly.

Chips is very obvious Hengqiang , possible opportunities for small and medium manufacturers in differentiated markets. Sanan Optoelectronics dominant position in this area is relatively obvious, however , from an investment point of view, its business growth outside of LED chips also require attention, such as horizontal expansion of business CPV and GaN semiconductor devices , as well as downstream strategic cooperation extension .

Investment strategy based on trends in the economy are the main segments of the logical chain stock picking . The gross profit margin for the current sort fields is applied above the package, but the package is higher than the chip.

Four : large touch screen needs to start

2013 due to the ultra-extreme demand failed to meet expectations , leading to eat lower than expected demand for the touch screen , but from another perspective, the needs of large- size touch screen does not start , but also to have had on the OGS technology , leading-edge capacity Taiwanese manufacturers is difficult to quickly widen the gap.

Instead Chinese manufacturers has made great progress during the year , regardless join OGS long letter Technology , BOE, Leybold Tech and other companies , or another way to invest Metal Mesh technology Ophelia light in 2013 are gradually completed the capacity reserves and customers development, the industry has not really started until ready to compete.

Due to the current PC, NB industry overall development of fatigue , Win 8 can not really drive replacement demand outbreaks , especially Win 8 touch features the main push of the ecological reserve due to lack of software , it is difficult to form a real stimulus to the consumer, I still NB replacement to be established and optimized touch software system.

Ultrabook market will probably start a gradual rather than overnight to complete the process , in this process , competitive cost, efficiency, response speed of increasingly intense. Especially in the OGS technical route, gathering the attention of the vast majority of touch- makers in the BOE , AUO , Innolux after the market reached OGS , OGS product prices next year will usher in competition.

Metal Mesh, silver nanowires technology is currently less investment companies, competition is more relaxed, the core problem is that the current maturity of the technology should be improved , the need to break customers.

Five: panel put new capacity upstream materials industry the opportunity to show

Global panel industry in the wake of the financial crisis, the investment rate has slowed down , dropped significantly in 2012 and 2013 production capacity . Especially after the panel industry into the 8th generation line above , due to the enormous scale of investment, Taiwanese companies have already unable to follow up , even South Korea's Samsung , LG also have to reduce the scale of investment .

And China has a huge area due to the consumer market, and expected to return to the next screen tariffs international level , to become the world's most densely populated areas of investment panel . Hefei BOE is expected in 2014 , Erdos , LG Guangzhou , Samsung Suzhou plant will come on stream in panel production capacity in China after nearly a year of stagnation , re-enter the growth path .

Benefit from the Chinese government support for local sourcing panel industry , panel industry companies have a greater motivation to import local raw materials suppliers. With more panel production capacity construction is completed, the upstream raw material demand will be greatly enhanced.

Six: local optical enterprise can flourish

Optical industry as the industry has been high barriers to enjoy a more lucrative profitability. Taiwanese companies Largan as the world's mobile phone camera module optical lens enterprises, has enjoyed more than 40% of the gross margin level , along with the market to achieve rapid growth.

2014 will be a major push into the optical industry mainland enterprises , enhance the industry share and position of the year. Galaxycore micro- sensor domain design manufacturers , packaging companies Huatian Technology will benefit from the rise of the local mobile phone brands .

Module manufacturing new entrants Ophelia light , GoerTek With integrated supply of precision manufacturing experience and advantages in product technology, operational efficiency, production yield , customers will usher in a major breakthrough in the development of optical camera module will provide enterprise stronger customer loyalty , and become an important impetus to the development of two companies.

Seven: Apple released iWatch, iTV and different sizes iPhone, iPad Products

2013 Apple still continue to affect the development of the electronics industry , Apple colds, sneezing and went to the whole industry . Since the iPhone 5C plastic shell design and the high top and bottom ah , consumer demand is much lower than expected , iPhone 5S is facing capacity constraints , the demand for the release of the short term is difficult to ship all year had a negative impact and influence .

2014 , Apple faces Last Stand of the situation , but also the Apple iPhone 2 years once innovative point . Based on current market speculation , and we know from the supply chain information , next year iPhone, iPad product lines are likely to usher in new products of different sizes , the product line is expected to move further enriched .

At the same time the market awaited iWatch, iTV may officially on sale , we expect the trend of Apple once again leading innovation and creating new business models , stimulating new demand for consumer electronics .

Eight: the electric car market started

2013 Tesla pure electric vehicles in the United States triggered a strong chase hot market , it also raised concerns about the electric car market . In today's rising energy prices , environmental issues continue to highlight today, electric cars will be the future direction of the automotive industry has long been in doubt .

Past markets tend to worry about product technology immaturity , mileage , safety, driving pleasure and so hard to beat compared to conventional cars . With Tesla turned out , changed people 's understanding of electric vehicles , but also for the development of automobile plant for electric vehicles to provide a reference path .

We suspect that in 2014 there will be more manufacturers introduced different grades of classes Tesla programs , the domestic market will also be in the government's policy to promote the country and usher in the spring cell vehicle development.

Nine: flexible display horizon , technological innovation breakthrough soon

For many years various types of flexible display products have been emerging in a variety of science fiction , movies, TV shows them . After the rise of smart phones, mobile phones for flexible guess it has continued .

2013 , Samsung introduced the first commercial of the arc phone Galaxy Round, using curved OLED display, designed to be more in line with consumer concave curvature of the cheek , has become an important attempt flexible display products.

From the technical point of view , development of flexible products will go through different stages can be bent, can be wound , the collapse completely different technical difficulty of manufacturing , the current including a display , a touch , a battery , a circuit board which can achieve a certain degree the flexible, from a real flexible electronics is still a long distance .

But we believe in the development of mobile electronic products into a bottleneck when the flexible display as one of the future direction of development, is bound to be widespread concern manufacturers and markets products for the 2014 speculation is also very flexible rich, we suspect 2014 Flexible electronics market will be one of the main investment focus .

Ten: the continued development of artificial intelligence , driverless cars will be concerned

2013 global investors are focused on the Google X Lab Project Glass project launched commercial products Google Glass smart glasses , driving -related stocks , the Taiwan stock market , the mainland company's share price rose sharply.

So we suggest that you re- focus the next Google X Lab a fantasy technology products Self-Driving-Car ( driverless car ) , according to the current plan, Google is expected to launch unmanned vehicle molded products in 2015 , 2014 will be the market brewing passion, find the subject of a year , we recommend investors focus on the industrial chain.

Currently the core of the system is a laser range finder (Velodyne 64-beam) on the roof . The device is rotated at high speed to around 64 emitted laser beam , the laser hit the object around and return , you can calculate the distance between the body and the surrounding objects. The computer system according to the reformation of the fine from the 3D topographic data , and then combined with the high-resolution map , different data models for generating on-board computer system.

Further, on the front and rear bumpers of cars with four radar for detecting the surrounding circumstances . There is a camera near the rearview mirror to detect the traffic light situation . There is also a GPS, an inertial test unit , a wheel encoder to determine the vehicle position , tracking its movement.

Inside the body there are a number of sensors. Through sensors, the vehicle can be clearly "see" objects around , a clear grasp of their size , distance, time on the surrounding environment to maintain a 360-degree Hassle attention. It will not be because of fatigue , drunk and distracted.

All data collected by these devices will enter the on-board computer , this unmanned systems developed by Google to make judgments in a very short period of time : It is the acceleration, braking or steering .

According to our understanding , driverless cars will conduct a comprehensive upgrade of the revolutionary control system of the car , it will bring great opportunities for development of laser equipment , infrared equipment, radar equipment , GPS, sensor industry .